ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME

Well, it’s almost August. Training camps start next week, Cam Scattebo is looking like my drunk uncle in a bounce house on the Fourth of July, Baker Mayfield isn't a fan of spitters, and fantasy championship hopefuls are scouring the internet for whatever tips-and-tricks article they can find.

But not us.

We stay plugged in! We know the details matter! And your job when drafts arrive, in August and September (first game isn't until the 9th!), isn’t to build the perfect roster.

It’s never going to happen.

Your job is to establish stable production early in your draft—Amon-Ra, Cook, Saquon—so you can take advantage of undervalued options with upside later on.

In a perfect world, every pick would offer a safe floor and league-winning upside. But this ain’t all buttercups and Dwayne Bowes.

The deeper we get into the double-digit rounds, the more I start leaning toward the crazy side of the crazy/hot scale. Because winning championships requires embracing volatility.

Whether it’s investing, fantasy football, or life in general, sometimes you have to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Don’t sell after every dip. Don’t panic every time the line moves against you.

Embrace the wave.

Embrace the volatility.

Embrace the success.

We establish a floor early so we can afford to take risks later.

I believe it was the late, great Colonel Sanders who once said:

“No risk it, no biscuit.”

He also said:

“I’m too drunk to taste this chicken.”

But I digress.

Doomsday Maye be approaching, but our drafts are right around the corner. It's time to strap in, strap on, and batten down the hatches as we prepare to embark on an odyssey across the vast, perilous landscape of landmines cluttering our draft boards, each one threatening to sink our championSHIP season.

See what I did there?

But here's the thing about every great odyssey...

The destination is rarely obvious when the journey begins.

The biggest winners in fantasy football aren't the ones who avoid every storm—they're the ones who recognize which storms are worth sailing through. They understand that volatility isn't always a warning sign. Sometimes it's an opportunity disguised as discomfort.

Every draft has players whose ADP reflects what happened.

Championships are won by drafting players whose price fails to reflect why it happened.

And that's exactly where our journey begins...

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All Roads Lead to Rome

At the time of writing, Rome Odunze is not being drafted like a locked-in breakout. FantasyPros has him around WR28 in expert consensus rankings and WR30 by ADP, with an overall cost in the late fifth to early sixth round.

That is not free.

But it is also nowhere near “the breakout is already priced in.”

Odunze is one of the strongest value-breakout bets of 2026 because the market is still treating him like a volatile WR3, while his 2025 role already looked much closer to that of a future WR2—with room for considerably more.

In his 12 active games, PlayerProfiler credited Odunze with 90 targets, a 23.7% target share, a 31.7% first-read target share, a 36.0% air-yards share, 11 red-zone targets, a 91.4% route participation rate, and an 88.2% snap share. Despite missing the final five regular-season games, he still led Chicago in targets.

Those are the exact signals fantasy managers normally pay a premium for.

Odunze was already operating as a full-time receiver and earning lead-level usage in an offense that also featured DJ Moore, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland. The route-fit data supports the same conclusion: he was winning across a broad NFL route tree, particularly on digs, outs, curls, slants, and posts.

The role was not the problem.

Even after missing five regular-season games, Rome still finished as Chicago’s target leader. The offense was already asking him to operate like a primary receiver. The fantasy production simply did not remain healthy or efficient enough to match the responsibility.

That matters because the market appears to be punishing the result more heavily than the process.

We get so distracted by shiny things.

The bullish case is not simply, “third-year breakout,” “post-hype sleeper,” or any of the usual blah, blah, blah. It is more specific than that: Odunze already earned a lead-receiver workload during Ben Johnson’s first season in Chicago.

Johnson does not need to manufacture a role for him. The role is already there.

The next step can come through cleaner execution, improved health, better target quality, and greater role consolidation—not necessarily a massive increase in total passing volume.

Johnson’s recent offenses have consistently produced strong scoring environments, aggressive decision-making, meaningful motion and play-action usage, and concentrated opportunities for their primary weapons.

That is exactly the type of ecosystem where a post-hype breakout becomes actionable.

My best case for Rome Odunze is not built on athletic testing or prospect hype. It is built on what we already saw in 2025.

He was already commanding alpha-level usage.

If the efficiency finally catches up to the opportunity, Rome Odunze will not merely beat his WR30 price.

He could win leagues.

Before the foot issue started winning the fight, Rome was cooking.

From Weeks 1 through 8, he averaged eight targets and 68 receiving yards per game while producing 2.21 yards per route run.

Stretched over 17 games, that pace lands around 136 targets, 1,156 yards, and 12 touchdowns.

Right on pace to finish as a WR1, with top-five upside during touchdown-heavy stretches.

He also opened the season with a touchdown in four consecutive games—the only player in the NFL to score in each of the first four weeks.

That was not a random hot streak.

That was the breakout trying to happen in real time.

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THE BODY KEPT INTERRUPTING THE BREAKOUT

Injuries are a part of the game. It sucks, yet "we were born into this, we've been molded by it". Rome’s weekly game log is where this article stopped being a simple “buy the post-hype receiver” argument for me.

He opened the season with four straight top-20 finishes: WR19, WR4, WR20, and WR17.

Then came consecutive WR63 finishes.

He resurfaced as the WR8 in Week 8.

Then WR98.

Then WR8 again in Week 10.

After that: WR54, WR39, and WR82 before Chicago finally shut him down for the final five regular-season games. He later returned for the playoffs.

That pattern does not prove exactly how his foot felt from one Sunday to the next. A fantasy game log is not an MRI.

But it does show a player who could still access his ceiling in bursts and could no longer sustain it consistently.

And I do not see a receiver disappearing.

I see a DAWG (and I do not use that term lightly) continuing to run routes, earn targets, and battle for his team despite his body actively limiting what he could turn those opportunities into.

Rome was my favorite receiver in a loaded 2024 class. Nothing about this stretch changed that evaluation.

The Bears did not deactivate a struggling developmental receiver.

They protected a premium asset whose body was no longer allowing the underlying role to translate consistently.

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THE PRODUCTION NEVER CAUGHT THE OPPORTUNITY

Rome’s season-long efficiency was messy enough to make fantasy managers nervous.

That is good.

Nervousness is where discounts come from. And Mama didnt raise me to pay full price!

He finished around 1.72 yards per route run, 7.3 yards per target, a 48.9% catch rate, and 12.2 fantasy points per game against 13.9 expected fantasy points per game.

Perhaps the loudest clue is hidden in his 805 unrealized air yards. (see the productivity section in the analytics chart)

If fantasy points tell you what happened, unrealized air yards help explain why it happened.

Rome was earning downfield opportunities. The connections simply did not arrive often enough for the production to catch up.

Like most advanced metrics, the numbers vary slightly depending on the provider. PFF, PlayerProfiler, and NBC Sports all use different charting methods—trust me, I checked—but they all reach the same conclusion:

Rome Odunze’s target quality was poor.

The percentages may differ.

The story does not.

PFF charged Odunze with four drops on 87 targets and 410 routes, while PlayerProfiler listed seven drops, 90 targets, and 385 routes. Catchable-target rate ranged from 59% at PFF to 69% at NBC Sports, with PlayerProfiler landing between them at 63.3%.

Rome was not blameless. No receiver is.

But every stat points in the same direction: too many of his opportunities were difficult, inaccurate, or never truly available to be converted.

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THE TARGET-QUALITY PROBLEM BEGAN AFTER HE WON

Reception Perception helps explain why Rome’s production lagged behind his talent.

Odunze was already winning across a broad route tree, with strong results on outs, digs, posts, curls, slants, comebacks, and screens. His profile looked like that of a complete NFL receiver, not a player living off one or two manufactured concepts.

He posted a 76.1% success rate against man coverage and a 78.0% success rate against zone.

In other words, getting open was not the issue.

The problem was that Caleb Williams’ route-success profile was far less consistent. He performed best on flats, checkdowns, curls, outs, and slants, but struggled more on posts, corners, and portions of the intermediate passing game.

That mismatch matters because Rome’s role relied on timing, anticipation, leverage, and downfield accuracy—not just easy touches near the line of scrimmage.

Those are also the exact kinds of issues that continuity and chemistry can help clean up.

The target-quality problem was created after Rome won the route. There’s meat left on dem bones for this DAWG to chew!!!

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CALEB DOES NOT NEED TO BECOME PERFECT

Caleb Williams is the hinge of this entire argument. That can sound scary until you look at what already improved in Ben Johnson’s first season.

Williams climbed from 3,541 passing yards as a rookie to 3,942 in 2025.

He threw 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions and finished as a high-end fantasy quarterback.

More importantly, the catastrophic negative plays began disappearing.

Williams was credited with an improvement from -0.06 EPA per play and a 10.0% sack rate in 2024 to 0.07 EPA per play and a 3.79% sack rate in 2025.

That is not a cosmetic change.

That is the function of the offense. (Thats the Ben Johnson difference)

The accuracy remains the issue. Williams finished with a deeply negative completion rate over expectation, and Reception Perception’s route charting was especially critical of his intermediate consistency.

But Rome does not need Caleb to become perfect.

He needs Caleb to become less chaotic on the routes Rome is already winning.

Better timing.

Cleaner anticipation.

More trust.

Fewer throws that ask Rome to make a circus catch just to keep the offense on schedule.

That is a much smaller leap than asking a quarterback to completely reinvent himself.

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BEN JOHNSON HAS DONE THIS BEFORE

Ben Johnson’s recent track record is not a guarantee.

It is, however, a hell of a reason to believe the environment can continue improving.

Before Johnson became Detroit’s offensive coordinator, the 2021 Lions averaged 19.1 points per game.

In his first season as coordinator, they jumped to 26.6.

Then 27.1.

Then 33.2 in 2024, when Detroit became one of the best offenses in football.

After Johnson left, the Lions remained good—but fell back to 28.3 points per game.

Chicago showed the same immediate fingerprints. The Bears climbed from 18.2 points per game in 2024 to 25.9 in Johnson’s first season, improved from 5-12 to 11-6, and finished as a top-eight offense by multiple efficiency measures.

This is not simply a coach who calls cool plays.

Johnson builds structure and systems for today's NFL.

His 2025 Bears used motion on 60.6% of plays, play action at a 19.9% rate, and shotgun on only 51.7% of snaps.

He mixes formations, keeps the run game credible, forces defenses to declare their intentions, and creates defined answers for his quarterback.

That matters for Rome because Johnson’s structure should create cleaner, more repeatable opportunities for a receiver who is already earning volume.

Johnson’s best offenses have not required one pass catcher to absorb everything. But they have consistently featured a clear target hierarchy.

In Detroit, that pecking order ran through Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, then Jameson Williams once his health and off bets cleared up.

In Chicago, Rome was already earning the most valuable wide-receiver role while Colston Loveland became a trusted middle-of-the-field option.

A good offense can support more than one player.

That does not mean every player is equally valuable.

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YEAR TWO DOES NOT NEED MORE PASSES—IT NEEDS BETTER ONES

Fantasy managers often treat continuity like a magical volume button. And Im just as guilty of it as the rest of ya!

We see all that opportunity and potential and cant help but start drooling at the mouth.

Same quarterback.

Same coach.

Second year together.

More passes. More yards. More touchdowns. Everybody wins.

That is not always how improvement works.

Detroit’s second season under Johnson was more consolidation than explosion. The offense became more trustworthy, the record improved, and Amon-Ra’s alpha role strengthened even without a massive spike in pass rate, unfortunately to the dismay of Sam Laporta truthers worldwide, who are still banging at the gate 3 years later.

Miami’s second season under Mike McDaniel offers the ceiling version. The pass rate actually declined while offensive efficiency exploded and Tyreek Hill’s target concentration increased.

I know Tyreek was once a unicorn, but were talking about systems, and systems dont turn athletes into Superstars. Superstars take advantage of every opportunity a system presents.

That is the lesson for Chicago.

The Bears do not need to throw 700 passes for Rome to break out.

They need the offense to preserve his role while improving the quality and timing of the opportunities he already earned.

Year One fixed sacks and reduced turnovers.

Year Two can attack chemistry, accuracy, and execution.

The structure is here. And I am nothing but a man of structure and systems at the end of the day.

The next step is simply exercising patience. Look at the big brain on Ben…is that a big kahuna burger?

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ARE WE DRAFTING THE WRONG BEARS RECEIVERS?

The market is paying more for Luther Burden’s projected role than it is for Rome Odunze’s demonstrated one.

Colston Loveland is gonna cost you a third or fourth round pick come the end of August.

At the time of writing, Burden was being drafted around the fourth round and roughly WR21, while Rome remained available closer to the sixth round around WR28-WR30.

Burden was excellent on a per-route basis in 2025.

He also finished with a 12.8% target share, 44.6% route participation, and a 39.7% snap share.

The bullish Burden case requires a major role expansion. But a high value year 2 receiver is the same reason we were all high on Rome last summer!

Rome’s case requires the role he already had to become healthier and more efficient.

That does not make Burden a bad pick. It makes the price gap difficult to justify.

Rome posted a 23.7% target share, 31.7% first-read share, 36.0% air-yards share, and 91.4% route participation. Uhhh yes please!

Burden is being priced for what fantasy managers believe he can become.

Rome is being discounted for what happened while ignoring what he already was.

Be smart, take advantage of the dip! All your picks have a value.

We want to maximize that value. Thats how we win!

D.J. Moore’s departure also removes 85 targets from the 2025 offense.

Those opportunities will not automatically funnel to one player, especially with Loveland and Burden involved, but the Bears are not replacing Rome’s existing role.

They are reorganizing the volume around it.

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THE RISK IS REAL—THAT IS WHY THE PRICE STILL WORKS

Rome Odunze is not risk-free. (As much as im trying to will it!)

The foot has to cooperate.  We know feet can be finicky (... or maybe thats just my lingering CMC PTSD...)

It's hard to separate from NFL corners when planting your foot feels like stepping on a Lego. But this is the first significant injury of Rome's football career, and I'm not letting one stress fracture scare me away from a player who already proved he can earn alpha-level usage.

Caleb’s accuracy has to improve enough to raise the catchable-target floor.

Loveland is already a trusted option.

Burden is talented enough to command more work.

The Chicago passing game can improve while still producing frustrating weeks for everyone involved.

That is the volatility. But risk and bad value are not the same thing.

At a mid-WR3 price, you are not being asked to bet on perfection. You are being asked to bet that a healthy receiver who already earned featured usage can convert more of the opportunities he was already getting.

That is a bet I am willing to make.

And for a player who could essentially be the first guy off your bench, Rome gives you the kind of floor and upside that can maximize the value of your entire roster.

I am comfortable drafting Rome between picks 58 and 72 as my WR3, with legitimate low-end WR2 upside and a path to more if Caleb and the offense take another step.

If im being honest with myself and more importantly you | Im probably comfortable taking him anywhere after the 5th...depending on whats avalible on your draft boards.

At his current cost, the market is still leaving room for us, but even in the fifth the upside and ROI should far outweigh the cost.

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ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME

Do not draft a player simply because his price fell. Not every dip is an opportunity. Sometimes the market is warning you for a reason.

But when the talent remains intact, the role is already established, the injury explains the instability, the target quality has room to regress, and the offensive environment is entering Year Two under one of football’s best designers?

Zoom out.

Rome’s 2025 season was not the story of a receiver who failed to earn opportunity.

It was the story of a breakout repeatedly interrupted before it could finish kicking down the door and introducing itself.

The market remembers the valleys.

I remember the four straight top-20 finishes.

The two WR8 weeks.

The target share.

The first-read usage.

The air yards.

The routes won before the ball ever arrived.

We talked about embracing volatility before this journey ever began.

This...

is what embracing volatility looks like. Not blind optimism. Not chasing hype.

Recognizing when the market is pricing the wrong story.

Because Rome Odunze didn't fail in 2025.

He simply never got the chance to finish letting yall know...

All roads lead to Rome

Well folks...not a bad way to kick off my return to writing.

Life has been a little crazy lately. I lost part of my thumb to a bandsaw, got hit by a van while riding my bike, and spent months pedaling nearly 100 miles a week just to get to work so I could save enough to keep chasing this dream.

But that's the thing about dreams...

They're rarely built in straight lines.

OG Fantasy Football has always been about patience, preparation, and putting in the work when nobody's watching. This article is another step on that journey.

We're just getting started.

I've been grinding my whole life.

The difference now is...I finally get to grind for something I love.

Thanks for reading.

— Steve-O

Founder | Host OG Fantasy Football

References

Data & Advanced Analytics

• FantasyPros. 2026 Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) & Average Draft Position (ADP). https://www.fantasypros.com/

• PlayerProfiler. Rome Odunze Advanced Stats & Metrics (2025 Season). https://www.playerprofiler.com/

• PlayerProfiler. Caleb Williams Advanced Stats & Metrics (2025 Season). https://www.playerprofiler.com/

• PlayerProfiler. Luther Burden Advanced Stats & Metrics (2025 Season). https://www.playerprofiler.com/

• Pro Football Focus (PFF). Receiving & Quarterback Premium Stats (2025). https://www.pff.com/

• Reception Perception (Matt Harmon). 2025 Route Success Profiles: Rome Odunze & Caleb Williams. https://receptionperception.com/

• SumerSports. NFL Team & Quarterback Advanced Metrics (EPA, Sack Rate). https://sumersports.com/

• NBC Sports Edge. Advanced Receiving Metrics & Catchable Target Data. https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy

Team & League Statistics

• Pro Football Reference. Chicago Bears 2025 Team Statistics. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

• NFL Next Gen Stats. Receiving & Passing Analytics. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

Additional Research

• Chicago Bears official injury reports

• NFL Game Books (Weeks 1–18, 2025 Season)

• NFL GSIS Game Statistics

• Historical Detroit Lions offensive statistics (Ben Johnson tenure)

I would also add one more thing...

Image Credits

PlayerProfiler graphics used with permission through the PlayerProfiler Content Creator Partnership. Thank you all for giving this guy a shot!

Reception Perception route charts © Matt Harmon / Reception Perception, and the guy who just charts the guys throwing the ball.

NFL and team logos are property of the National Football League and the Chicago Bears.